CTVA

Corteva Inc

$13.24 · −4.33% vs $13.84 close · scored 10:32 · fresh

Decision brief

BEARISH · 54/100

What changed

No prior comparable read.

Evidence is current.

What would change the view

composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100

For the read

options volume favours puts

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read

The read

Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced, and the tape has led price here.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

−31.4 composite−91.1 vs a week ago

Evidence

54 / 100 · top 52% today

2,281 contracts · quality 57

hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921

Why it’s −31

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−51.3 pts

197 calls · 8.6%2,084 puts

bias −82.7 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+19.9 pts

8,227 call OI · 76.2%2,572 put OI

bias +52.4 × 0.38

Equals

−31.4

72% of the score comes from today’s volume, 28% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 14 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −84.38% · tape −76.9 · corr 0.21

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 84.38% while the tape has faded 76.9 points. They agree.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 57 · 2,281 contracts

against

This kind of read hasn’t paid

strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921

pass

Tape has led price

tape has led CTVA’s price by 3 days (r=-0.44, n=45)

against

Our record on CTVA is poor

26% hit rate on 429 closed calls · payoff 0.88×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$90

$85

$80

$75

$70

$65

$60

$55

$50

$45

$25

$22.5

$20

$17.5

$15

WALL · OI 4,713

$12.5

$10

$7.5

Spot $13.24 highlighted. The $15 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 4,713). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on CTVA

Proof

26%

hit rate · 429 closed

0.88×

payoff

−0.10%

avg return

10 Oct · 4h

$13.75 → $13.75

+0.00%flat

10 Oct · 4h

$13.24 → $13.75

+3.85%miss

9 Oct · 4h

$13.24 → $13.24

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$13.75 → $13.24

−3.71%hit

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 194 of these 429 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

+57.61%Q3 ’25

−2.09%Q4 ’25

+25.39%Q1 ’26

+1.40%Q2 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report — P/E 9.57 · fwd 19.97Beta 0.724 52w $11.48–$90.97IV rank —