DIA DIA
$511.65 · −0.81% vs $515.81 close · scored 12:22 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 76/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 17.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.3 composite┆ +2.2 yesterday (+17.1) +27.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
76 / 100 · top 6% today
43,898 contracts · quality 93 · stability 0.92
hasn’t paid −1.08% · n=2,233
What traded today · weight 62%
+7.8 pts
24,698 calls · 56.3% 19,200 puts
bias +12.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+11.6 pts
93,861 call OI · 65.2% 50,034 put OI
bias +30.5 × 0.38
Equals
+19.3
40% of the score comes from today’s volume, 60% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.68% · tape +34.3 · corr -0.13
▼ low −19.3 ◆ +28.7 in a day ● peak +19 08-31 09-06 09-12 09-18 09-24 09-30 10-06 10-09 $537 $509 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.68% while the tape has firmed 34.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 93 · 43,898 contracts
pass Stable 0.92 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.08% avg, n=2,233
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=39)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on DIA is poor 13% hit rate on 657 closed calls · payoff 1.36×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $511.65 highlighted. The $529 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,425). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$511.65 → $511.65
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$511.10 → $511.10
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$511.27 → $511.27
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$508.62 → $508.62
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 441 of these 657 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta 0.871
52w $450.44–$546.75 IV rank —
Ask about DIA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −8 to +19 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +2.2 on 8 Oct, then rose to +19.3 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $515.81 to $515.81. It’s at +19.3 now.+7.8 from volume and +11.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 40 pts stock_scores · 12:22 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our DIA record what it is? What’s the $529 wall?
What our data projects
−0.11 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#390 of 724 · helped by quality, confidence, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $529 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
DIA · etf
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . Price is moving the other way.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.3 ┆ +2.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.08% · n=2,233
Why it’s +19
+7.8 volume · 56% calls+11.6 OI · 65% calls
40 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +28.7 08-31 09-06 09-12 09-18 09-24 09-30 10-06 10-09 $537 $509 Price −1.68%, tape +34.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 76 (94th pct) · quality 93 · 43,898 contracts
pass Stable 0.92 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.08% avg, n=2,233
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=39)
What traded today · 62%
+7.8 pts
24,698 calls · 19,200 puts · bias +12.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+11.6 pts
93,861 call OI · 50,034 put OI · bias +30.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.68% · tape +34.3 · corr -0.13
▼ low −19.3 ◆ +28.7 in a day ● peak +19 08-31 09-06 09-12 09-18 09-24 09-30 10-06 10-09 $537 $509 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.68% while the tape has firmed 34.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
13% hit rate · 657 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$511.65 → $511.65
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$511.10 → $511.10
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$511.27 → $511.27
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$508.62 → $508.62
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $529 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about DIA
Why did the score rise from −8 to +19 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +2.2 on 8 Oct, then rose to +19.3 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $515.81 to $515.81. It’s at +19.3 now.+7.8 from volume and +11.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 40 pts stock_scores · 12:22 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our DIA record what it is? What’s the $529 wall?