EEM

$67.67 · +0.00% vs $67.67 close · scored 11:51 · stale

Decision brief

BEARISH · 74/100

What changed

No prior comparable read.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 74/100

For the read

options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high

Against / uncertainty

signal stability is low

The read

Strongly bearish, well evidenced, but price is moving the other way.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

−26.0 composite+0.0 vs a week ago

Evidence

74 / 100 · top 5% today

54,862 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.00

has paid −0.28% · n=803

Why it’s −26

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−12.3 pts

21,992 calls · 40.1%32,870 puts

bias −19.8 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

−13.7 pts

1,212,911 call OI · 31.9%2,585,312 put OI

bias −36.1 × 0.38

Equals

−26.0

47% of the score comes from today’s volume, 53% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 41 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −1.28% · tape +8.3 · corr -0.45

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.28% while the tape has firmed 8.3 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

pass

Plenty behind it

confidence 74 (95th pct) · quality 83 · 54,862 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47

pass

This kind of read has paid

strongly bearish · put-heavy · high liquidity → −0.28% avg, n=803

note

No reliable lead

enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=40)

against

Our record on EEM is poor

6% hit rate on 391 closed calls · payoff 0.45×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$72

$71.5

$71

$70.5

$70

$69.5

$69

$68.5

$68

$67.5

$67

$66.5

$66

$65.5

$65

WALL · OI 371,708

$64.5

$64

$63.5

$63

Spot $67.67 highlighted. The $65 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 371,708). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on EEM

Proof

hit rate · 391 closed

0.45×

payoff

−0.55%

avg return

6 Oct · 4h

$67.67 → $67.67

+0.00%flat

4 Oct · 4h

$67.67 → $67.67

+0.00%flat

3 Oct · 4h

$67.63 → $67.67

+0.06%miss

2 Oct · 4h

$67.49 → $67.49

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 239 of these 391 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

No reported quarters stored yet.

Street —Next report — P/E —Beta 0.767 52w $51.82–$71.57IV rank —