IWM IWM
$278.94 · +0.49% vs $277.57 close · scored 10:57 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 87/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 9.8 points.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 87/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+17.3 composite┆ +7.4 yesterday (+9.8) +49.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
87 / 100 · top 2% today
153,663 contracts · quality 95 · stability 0.90
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
What traded today · weight 62%
+16.8 pts
97,691 calls · 63.6% 55,972 puts
bias +27.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+0.4 pts
60,396 call OI · 50.6% 59,023 put OI
bias +1.1 × 0.38
Equals
+17.3
97% of the score comes from today’s volume, 3% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.01% · tape +55.6 · corr -0.27
▼ low −51.5 ◆ +35.0 in a day ● peak +17 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $296 $277 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.01% while the tape has firmed 55.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 87 (98th pct) · quality 95 · 153,663 contracts
pass Stable 0.90 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.05% avg, n=9,329
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led IWM’s tape by 2 days (r=0.17, n=52)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on IWM is poor 19% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 1.23×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $278.94 highlighted. The $281 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,504). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
19%
hit rate · 2000 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$278.94 → $278.94
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$278.94 → $278.94
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$279.46 → $278.94
−0.18% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$278.13 → $279.46
+0.48% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1072 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.158
52w $228.90–$305.18 IV rank —
Ask about IWM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −38 to +17 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −32.6 on 6 Oct, then rose to +2.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $281.52 to $281.52. It’s at +17.3 now.+16.8 from volume and +0.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 10:57 method · 62/38
Compare with ARKK Why is our IWM record what it is? What’s the $281 wall?
What our data projects
+0.30 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#125 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $281 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
IWM · etf
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+17.3 ┆ +7.4 yday evidence
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
Why it’s +17
+16.8 volume · 64% calls+0.4 OI · 51% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +35.0 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $296 $277 Price −4.01%, tape +55.6 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 87 (98th pct) · quality 95 · 153,663 contracts
pass Stable 0.90 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led IWM’s tape by 2 days (r=0.17, n=52)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+16.8 pts
97,691 calls · 55,972 puts · bias +27.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+0.4 pts
60,396 call OI · 59,023 put OI · bias +1.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.01% · tape +55.6 · corr -0.27
▼ low −51.5 ◆ +35.0 in a day ● peak +17 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-10 $296 $277 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.01% while the tape has firmed 55.6 points. The two are drifting apart.
19% hit rate · 2000 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$278.94 → $278.94
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$278.94 → $278.94
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$279.46 → $278.94
−0.18% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$278.13 → $279.46
+0.48% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $281 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about IWM
Why did the score rise from −38 to +17 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −32.6 on 6 Oct, then rose to +2.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $281.52 to $281.52. It’s at +17.3 now.+16.8 from volume and +0.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 10:57 method · 62/38
Compare with ARKK Why is our IWM record what it is? What’s the $281 wall?