JD

JD.com Inc

$26.91 · +0.00% vs $26.91 close · scored 14:19 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 56/100

What changed

No prior comparable read.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 56/100

For the read

No strong confirming evidence isolated.

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low

The read

Neutral, moderately evidenced, but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

−2.9 composite−18.7 vs a week ago

Evidence

56 / 100 · top 47% today

6,569 contracts · quality 73 · stability 0.00

neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671

Why it’s −3

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−7.0 pts

2,916 calls · 44.4%3,653 puts

bias −11.2 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+4.0 pts

33,647 call OI · 55.3%27,215 put OI

bias +10.6 × 0.38

Equals

−2.9

63% of the score comes from today’s volume, 37% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −2.78% · tape −11.5 · corr 0.33

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.78% while the tape has faded 11.5 points. They agree.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 56 (53th pct) · quality 73 · 6,569 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 92

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671

note

Tape is confirming, not predicting

price has led JD’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.21, n=44)

note

Our record on JD is mixed

37% hit rate on 418 closed calls · payoff 1.46×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$32

$31.5

$31

$30.5

$30

$29.5

$29

$28.5

$28

$27.5

$27

WALL · OI 9,220

$26.5

$26

$25.5

$25

$24.5

$24

$23

$22

Spot $26.91 highlighted. The $27 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 9,220). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on JD

Proof

37%

hit rate · 418 closed

1.46×

payoff

+0.20%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$26.91 → $26.91

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$26.91 → $26.91

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$26.91 → $26.91

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$26.91 → $26.91

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 164 of these 418 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

−10.74%Q3 ’25

−71.43%Q4 ’25

−13.21%Q1 ’26

−11.96%Q2 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report — P/E 14.42 · fwd 6.88Beta 1.299 52w $95.80–$143.80IV rank —