LLY Eli Lilly and Co
$1,157.49 · +0.00% vs $1,157.49 close · scored 04:51 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 67/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+16.9 composite+15.3 vs a week ago
Evidence
67 / 100 · top 19% today
17,319 contracts · quality 81 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
What traded today · weight 62%
+19.1 pts
11,333 calls · 65.4% 5,986 puts
bias +30.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.2 pts
42,113 call OI · 47.0% 47,402 put OI
bias −5.9 × 0.38
Equals
+16.9
90% of the score comes from today’s volume, 10% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +0.71% · tape +19.7 · corr 0.22
● peak +19 ▼ low +1.6 ◆ +15.3 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-10 $1,190 $1,141 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 0.71% while the tape has firmed 19.7 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 81 · 17,319 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
note Our record on LLY is mixed 48% hit rate on 1965 closed calls · payoff 1.13×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $1,157.49 highlighted. The $520 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,555). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
48%
hit rate · 1965 closed
7 Oct · 4h
$1,157.49 → $1,157.49
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$1,141.14 → $1,141.14
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$1,155.58 → $1,155.58
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$1,151.39 → $1,151.39
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 150 of these 1965 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 40.81 · fwd 26.25 Beta 0.422
52w $783.85–$1,292.65 IV rank —
Ask about LLY answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +12 to +17 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +1.6 on 6 Oct, then rose to +16.9 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $1,141.14 to $1,157.49. It’s at +16.9 now.+19.1 from volume and −2.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 04:51 method · 62/38
Compare with MRK Why is our LLY record what it is? What’s the $520 wall?
What our data projects
−0.34 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#510 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $520 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Eli Lilly and Co · Pharmaceuticals
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+16.9 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.74% · n=9,948
Why it’s +17
+19.1 volume · 65% calls−2.2 OI · 47% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +15.3 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-10 $1,190 $1,141 Price +0.71%, tape +19.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 81 · 17,319 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.74% avg, n=9,948
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
+19.1 pts
11,333 calls · 5,986 puts · bias +30.9
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.2 pts
42,113 call OI · 47,402 put OI · bias −5.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +0.71% · tape +19.7 · corr 0.22
● peak +19 ▼ low +1.6 ◆ +15.3 in a day 09-25 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-10 $1,190 $1,141 Over 30 days, price has risen 0.71% while the tape has firmed 19.7 points. They agree.
48% hit rate · 1965 closed
7 Oct · 4h
$1,157.49 → $1,157.49
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$1,141.14 → $1,141.14
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$1,155.58 → $1,155.58
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$1,151.39 → $1,151.39
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $520 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about LLY
Why did the score rise from +12 to +17 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +1.6 on 6 Oct, then rose to +16.9 on 7 Oct as the price moved from $1,141.14 to $1,157.49. It’s at +16.9 now.+19.1 from volume and −2.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 04:51 method · 62/38
Compare with MRK Why is our LLY record what it is? What’s the $520 wall?