RIVN Rivian Automotive Inc
$14.20 · −0.65% vs $14.29 close · scored 15:44 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 82/100
What changed
Composite weakened 7.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 82/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+33.8 composite┆ +41.2 yesterday (−7.5) −2.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
82 / 100 · top 3% today
19,550 contracts · quality 94 · stability 0.94
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
What traded today · weight 62%
+19.5 pts
12,845 calls · 65.7% 6,705 puts
bias +31.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+14.3 pts
189,029 call OI · 68.8% 85,719 put OI
bias +37.6 × 0.38
Equals
+33.8
58% of the score comes from today’s volume, 42% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −11.67% · tape +1.9 · corr 0.09
▼ low +23.2 ● peak +57 ◆ +28.3 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 10-09 $17 $14 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 11.67% while the tape has barely moved (+1.9). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 82 (97th pct) · quality 94 · 19,550 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RIVN’s tape by 3 days (r=0.28, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on RIVN is poor 15% hit rate on 466 closed calls · payoff 1.13×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $14.20 highlighted. The $16 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 44,365). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on RIVN Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$14.20 → $14.20
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$14.33 → $14.20
−0.94% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$14.33 → $14.20
−0.94% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$14.33 → $14.20
−0.94% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 305 of these 466 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.628
52w $12.39–$22.69 IV rank —
Ask about RIVN answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +33.8?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 2.7 points of +33.8 across the last 8 sessions.+19.5 from volume and +14.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with NIO Why is our RIVN record what it is? What’s the $16 wall?
What our data projects
+0.54 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#56 of 724 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $16 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Rivian Automotive Inc · Automobiles
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+33.8 ┆ +41.2 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.37% · n=22,387
Why it’s +34
+19.5 volume · 66% calls+14.3 OI · 69% calls
44 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +28.3 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 10-09 $17 $14 Price −11.67%, tape +1.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 82 (97th pct) · quality 94 · 19,550 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.37% avg, n=22,387
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led RIVN’s tape by 3 days (r=0.28, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
+19.5 pts
12,845 calls · 6,705 puts · bias +31.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+14.3 pts
189,029 call OI · 85,719 put OI · bias +37.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −11.67% · tape +1.9 · corr 0.09
▼ low +23.2 ● peak +57 ◆ +28.3 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 10-09 $17 $14 Over 30 days, price has fallen 11.67% while the tape has barely moved (+1.9). The two are drifting apart.
15% hit rate · 466 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$14.20 → $14.20
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$14.33 → $14.20
−0.94% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$14.33 → $14.20
−0.94% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$14.33 → $14.20
−0.94% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $16 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about RIVN
What is behind today’s +33.8?
The composite has held within 2.7 points of +33.8 across the last 8 sessions.+19.5 from volume and +14.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with NIO Why is our RIVN record what it is? What’s the $16 wall?