TSLA Tesla Inc
$386.11 · +2.96% vs $375.00 close · scored 15:45 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 89/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 19.9 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 89/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+21.2 composite┆ +1.3 yesterday (+19.9) −1.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
89 / 100 · top 1% today
1,188,656 contracts · quality 98 · stability 0.95
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
What traded today · weight 62%
+23.1 pts
815,946 calls · 68.6% 372,710 puts
bias +37.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−1.9 pts
262,064 call OI · 47.5% 289,851 put OI
bias −5.0 × 0.38
Equals
+21.2
92% of the score comes from today’s volume, 8% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.22% · tape +10.6 · corr -0.25
● peak +27 ▼ low +2.7 ◆ +18.5 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $378 $354 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 2.22% while the tape has firmed 10.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 89 (99th pct) · quality 98 · 1,188,656 contracts
pass Stable 0.95 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.05% avg, n=9,329
pass Tape has led price tape has led TSLA’s price by 1 day (r=-0.20, n=52)
against Our record on TSLA is poor 8% hit rate on 1622 closed calls · payoff 0.85×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $386.11 highlighted. The $150 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 38,814). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on TSLA Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$386.11 → $386.11
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$375.00 → $386.11
+2.96% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$375.00 → $386.11
+2.96% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$375.00 → $386.11
+2.96% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1311 of these 1622 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 395.04 · fwd 174.43 Beta 1.763
52w $297.38–$498.83 IV rank —
Ask about TSLA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +21.2?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 1.5 points of +21.2 across the last 8 sessions.+23.1 from volume and −1.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with NIO Why is our TSLA record what it is? What’s the $150 wall?
What our data projects
+0.09 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#219 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $150 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Tesla Inc · Automobiles
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+21.2 ┆ +1.3 yday evidence
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
Why it’s +21
+23.1 volume · 69% calls−1.9 OI · 47% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +18.5 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $378 $354 Price +2.22%, tape +10.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 89 (99th pct) · quality 98 · 1,188,656 contracts
pass Stable 0.95 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against Our record on TSLA is poor 8% hit rate on 1622 closed calls · payoff 0.85×
What traded today · 62%
+23.1 pts
815,946 calls · 372,710 puts · bias +37.3
What’s on the books · 38%
−1.9 pts
262,064 call OI · 289,851 put OI · bias −5.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.22% · tape +10.6 · corr -0.25
● peak +27 ▼ low +2.7 ◆ +18.5 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $378 $354 Over 30 days, price has risen 2.22% while the tape has firmed 10.6 points. They agree.
8% hit rate · 1622 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$386.11 → $386.11
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$375.00 → $386.11
+2.96% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$375.00 → $386.11
+2.96% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$375.00 → $386.11
+2.96% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $150 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about TSLA
What is behind today’s +21.2?
The composite has held within 1.5 points of +21.2 across the last 8 sessions.+23.1 from volume and −1.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 15:45 method · 62/38
Compare with NIO Why is our TSLA record what it is? What’s the $150 wall?