XLE XLE
$65.70 · +0.00% vs $65.70 close · scored 18:51 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 74/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 14.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 74/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.4 composite┆ +7.9 yesterday (+14.5) +0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
74 / 100 · top 5% today
18,723 contracts · quality 91 · stability 0.83
hasn’t paid −1.55% · n=2,677
What traded today · weight 62%
+32.6 pts
14,289 calls · 76.3% 4,434 puts
bias +52.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−10.3 pts
219,986 call OI · 36.5% 383,160 put OI
bias −27.1 × 0.38
Equals
+22.4
76% of the score comes from today’s volume, 24% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.55% · tape +46.0 · corr 0.34
▼ low −41.8 ◆ +49.8 in a day ● peak +22 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-17 $66 $62 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 2.55% while the tape has firmed 46.0 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (95th pct) · quality 91 · 18,723 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.55% avg, n=2,677
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led XLE’s tape by 3 days (r=0.28, n=40)
against Our record on XLE is poor 16% hit rate on 590 closed calls · payoff 0.80×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $65.70 highlighted. The $60 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 167,795). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$65.70 → $65.70
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$65.24 → $65.70
+0.70% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$65.24 → $65.70
+0.70% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$65.24 → $65.70
+0.70% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 407 of these 590 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta 0.486
52w $42.35–$66.17 IV rank —
Ask about XLE answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −42 to +22 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −41.8 on 7 Oct, then rose to +8.0 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $62.90 to $63.36. It’s at +22.4 now.+32.6 from volume and −10.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 41 pts stock_scores · 18:51 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our XLE record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?
What our data projects
+0.19 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#173 of 855 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
XLE · etf
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+22.4 ┆ +7.9 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.55% · n=2,677
Why it’s +22
+32.6 volume · 76% calls−10.3 OI · 36% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +49.8 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-17 $66 $62 Price +2.55%, tape +46.0 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 74 (95th pct) · quality 91 · 18,723 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.55% avg, n=2,677
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led XLE’s tape by 3 days (r=0.28, n=40)
What traded today · 62%
+32.6 pts
14,289 calls · 4,434 puts · bias +52.6
What’s on the books · 38%
−10.3 pts
219,986 call OI · 383,160 put OI · bias −27.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +2.55% · tape +46.0 · corr 0.34
▼ low −41.8 ◆ +49.8 in a day ● peak +22 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-17 $66 $62 Over 30 days, price has risen 2.55% while the tape has firmed 46.0 points. They agree.
16% hit rate · 590 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$65.70 → $65.70
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$65.24 → $65.70
+0.70% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$65.24 → $65.70
+0.70% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$65.24 → $65.70
+0.70% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about XLE
Why did the score rise from −42 to +22 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −41.8 on 7 Oct, then rose to +8.0 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $62.90 to $63.36. It’s at +22.4 now.+32.6 from volume and −10.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 41 pts stock_scores · 18:51 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our XLE record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?