XLI XLI
$168.67 · +0.00% vs $168.67 close · scored 14:00 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 66/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 7.8 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−7.4 composite┆ −15.2 yesterday (+7.8) +7.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 12% today
7,354 contracts · quality 87 · stability 0.77
neutral · +0.09% · n=2,937
What traded today · weight 62%
−4.7 pts
3,401 calls · 46.2% 3,953 puts
bias −7.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.8 pts
44,716 call OI · 46.4% 51,693 put OI
bias −7.2 × 0.38
Equals
−7.4
63% of the score comes from today’s volume, 37% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.15% · tape +36.7 · corr -0.29
▼ low −71.7 ◆ +68.9 in a day ● peak +16 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-21 09-28 10-05 10-14 $175 $167 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.15% while the tape has firmed 36.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (88th pct) · quality 87 · 7,354 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → +0.09% avg, n=2,937
pass Tape has led price tape has led XLI’s price by 2 days (r=-0.24, n=42)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on XLI is poor 11% hit rate on 230 closed calls · payoff 0.67×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $168.67 highlighted. The $160 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 16,589). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
14 Oct · 4h
$168.67 → $168.67
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$169.99 → $169.99
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$170.02 → $170.02
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$168.64 → $168.64
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 143 of these 230 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta 0.989
52w $147.14–$188.19 IV rank —
Ask about XLI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −15 to −7 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −15.2 on 12 Oct, then rose to −7.4 on 14 Oct as the price moved from $169.99 to $168.67. It’s at −7.4 now.−4.7 from volume and −2.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 14:00 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our XLI record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?
What our data projects
+0.14 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#217 of 855 · helped by quality, tape composite, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
XLI · etf
Neutral, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−7.4 ┆ −15.2 yday evidence
neutral · +0.09% · n=2,937
Why it’s −7
−4.7 volume · 46% calls−2.8 OI · 46% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +68.9 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-21 09-28 10-05 10-14 $175 $167 Price −2.15%, tape +36.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (88th pct) · quality 87 · 7,354 contracts
note Jumpy 0.77 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → +0.09% avg, n=2,937
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−4.7 pts
3,401 calls · 3,953 puts · bias −7.5
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.8 pts
44,716 call OI · 51,693 put OI · bias −7.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.15% · tape +36.7 · corr -0.29
▼ low −71.7 ◆ +68.9 in a day ● peak +16 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-21 09-28 10-05 10-14 $175 $167 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.15% while the tape has firmed 36.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
11% hit rate · 230 closed
14 Oct · 4h
$168.67 → $168.67
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$169.99 → $169.99
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$170.02 → $170.02
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$168.64 → $168.64
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $160 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about XLI
Why did the score rise from −15 to −7 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −15.2 on 12 Oct, then rose to −7.4 on 14 Oct as the price moved from $169.99 to $168.67. It’s at −7.4 now.−4.7 from volume and −2.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 14:00 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our XLI record what it is? What’s the $160 wall?