XLK

$199.81 · +0.00% vs $199.81 close · scored 00:34 · stale

Decision brief

BEARISH · 76/100

What changed

No prior comparable read.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 76/100

For the read

options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high

Against / uncertainty

signal stability is low

The read

Strongly bearish, well evidenced, and the tape has led price here.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

−57.5 composite+0.0 vs a week ago

Evidence

76 / 100 · top 4% today

142,801 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.00

has paid −0.28% · n=803

Why it’s −57

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−45.6 pts

18,839 calls · 13.2%123,962 puts

bias −73.6 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

−11.8 pts

277,554 call OI · 34.4%528,755 put OI

bias −31.2 × 0.38

Equals

−57.5

79% of the score comes from today’s volume, 21% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +6.47% · tape −29.4 · corr -0.73

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 6.47% while the tape has faded 29.4 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

pass

Plenty behind it

confidence 76 (96th pct) · quality 84 · 142,801 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47

pass

This kind of read has paid

strongly bearish · put-heavy · high liquidity → −0.28% avg, n=803

pass

Tape has led price

tape has led XLK’s price by 2 days (r=0.28, n=43)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits low relative to price

against

Our record on XLK is poor

8% hit rate on 226 closed calls · payoff 0.30×

Where the positions sit

No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.

Spot $199.81. The $135 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 66,291). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on XLK

Proof

hit rate · 226 closed

0.30×

payoff

−0.39%

avg return

3 Oct · 4h

$199.80 → $199.80

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$201.23 → $201.23

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$197.81 → $197.81

+0.00%flat

1 Oct · 4h

$198.02 → $198.02

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 126 of these 226 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

No reported quarters stored yet.

Street —Next report — P/E —Beta 1.365 52w $126.68–$203.25IV rank —