XLP · etf
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced. It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−17.4evidence 67
has paid −0.71% · n=559
Why it’s −17
+1.7 volume · 51% calls−19.2 OI · 25% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
Price −1.01%, tape −5.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lot
confidence 67 (90th pct) · quality 82 · 18,091 contracts
confidence 67 (90th pct) · quality 82 · 18,091 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
noteTape is confirming, not predicting
price has led XLP’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.33, n=40)
price has led XLP’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.33, n=40)
againstOur record on XLP is poor
22% hit rate on 1005 closed calls · payoff 2.28×
22% hit rate on 1005 closed calls · payoff 2.28×
What traded today · 62%
+1.7 pts
9,300 calls · 8,791 puts · bias +2.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−19.2 pts
127,579 call OI · 387,398 put OI · bias −50.5
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −1.01% · tape −5.3 · corr -0.02
Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.01% while the tape has faded 5.3 points. They agree.
$87.5
$86.5
$85.5
$84.5
$83.5
$83
$82.5
$81.5
$80.5
$79.5
$78.5
22% hit rate · 1005 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$83.17 → $83.17
+0.00%flat
9 Oct · 4h
$83.42 → $83.17
−0.30%miss
9 Oct · 4h
$83.42 → $83.17
−0.30%miss
9 Oct · 4h
$83.42 → $83.17
−0.30%hit
The read flips to bullishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $78 wallprice · below
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about XLP
What is behind today’s −17.4?
The composite has held within 1.7 points of −17.4 across the last 8 sessions.
Today’s −17.4 breaks down as +1.7 from volume and −19.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
Today’s −17.4 breaks down as +1.7 from volume and −19.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 41 ptsstock_scores · 15:03method · 62/38