XLV

$176.73 · +0.00% vs $176.73 close · scored 21:19 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 67/100

What changed

No prior comparable read.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100

For the read

options volume favours calls

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low

The read

Neutral, moderately evidenced, but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+3.9 composite−12.0 vs a week ago

Evidence

67 / 100 · top 10% today

13,677 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00

neutral · −0.68% · n=515

Why it’s +4

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

+14.1 pts

8,391 calls · 61.4%5,286 puts

bias +22.7 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

−10.1 pts

249,371 call OI · 36.6%431,090 put OI

bias −26.7 × 0.38

Equals

+3.9

58% of the score comes from today’s volume, 42% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 14 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +6.09% · tape −3.6 · corr 0.00

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 6.09% while the tape has barely moved (−3.6). The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 67 (90th pct) · quality 82 · 13,677 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 63

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.68% avg, n=515

note

Tape is confirming, not predicting

price has led XLV’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.20, n=39)

note

Our record on XLV is mixed

36% hit rate on 271 closed calls · payoff 0.90×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$184

$183

$182.5

$182

$181

$180

$179

$178

$177.5

$177

$176

$175

$174

$173

$172.5

$172

$171

$170

$169

Spot $176.73 highlighted. The $110 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 48,738). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on XLV

Proof

36%

hit rate · 271 closed

0.90×

payoff

+0.14%

avg return

17 Oct · 4h

$176.73 → $176.73

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$169.52 → $169.52

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$168.16 → $169.52

+0.81%hit

9 Oct · 4h

$168.16 → $169.52

+0.81%hit

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 135 of these 271 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

No reported quarters stored yet.

Street —Next report — P/E —Beta 0.547 52w $141.05–$176.60IV rank —