XLY XLY
$110.04 · +0.00% vs $110.04 close · scored 00:34 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 62/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 62/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−31.1 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
62 / 100 · top 19% today
2,134 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.38% · n=14,059
What traded today · weight 62%
−18.2 pts
753 calls · 35.3% 1,381 puts
bias −29.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−12.8 pts
144,067 call OI · 33.2% 290,459 put OI
bias −33.7 × 0.38
Equals
−31.1
59% of the score comes from today’s volume, 41% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.58% · tape −45.6 · corr 0.18
▼ low −70.0 ◆ +84.5 in a day ● peak +15 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-15 $117 $109 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.58% while the tape has faded 45.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (81th pct) · quality 79 · 2,134 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.38% avg, n=14,059
pass Tape has led price tape has led XLY’s price by 1 day (r=0.17, n=42)
against Our record on XLY is poor 17% hit rate on 410 closed calls · payoff 1.74×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $110.04. The $107.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 46,403). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
3 Oct · 4h
$110.04 → $110.04
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$110.55 → $110.55
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$108.81 → $108.81
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$108.81 → $108.81
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 273 of these 410 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta 1.225
52w $105.19–$125.01 IV rank —
Ask about XLY answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s −31.1?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of −31.1 across the last 8 sessions.−18.2 from volume and −12.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 00:34 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our XLY record what it is? What’s the $107.5 wall?
What our data projects
−0.12 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#552 of 855 · helped by quality, tape composite. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How 0 of 1 checked projections for XLY got the side of the market right.
Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $107.5 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
XLY · etf
Strongly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−31.1 evidence
has paid −0.38% · n=14,059
Why it’s −31
−18.2 volume · 35% calls−12.8 OI · 33% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +84.5 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-15 $117 $109 Price −2.58%, tape −45.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 62 (81th pct) · quality 79 · 2,134 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against Our record on XLY is poor 17% hit rate on 410 closed calls · payoff 1.74×
What traded today · 62%
−18.2 pts
753 calls · 1,381 puts · bias −29.4
What’s on the books · 38%
−12.8 pts
144,067 call OI · 290,459 put OI · bias −33.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.58% · tape −45.6 · corr 0.18
▼ low −70.0 ◆ +84.5 in a day ● peak +15 08-31 09-07 09-14 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-15 $117 $109 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.58% while the tape has faded 45.6 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
17% hit rate · 410 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$110.04 → $110.04
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$110.55 → $110.55
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$108.81 → $108.81
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$108.81 → $108.81
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $107.5 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about XLY
What is behind today’s −31.1?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of −31.1 across the last 8 sessions.−18.2 from volume and −12.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 43 pts stock_scores · 00:34 method · 62/38
Compare with IWM Why is our XLY record what it is? What’s the $107.5 wall?