XPEV Xpeng Inc
$9.92 · +4.31% vs $9.51 close · scored 15:44 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 68/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 14.9 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 68/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−19.3 composite┆ −34.2 yesterday (+14.9) −22.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
68 / 100 · top 17% today
19,265 contracts · quality 87 · stability 0.76
has paid −0.22% · n=1,509
What traded today · weight 62%
−35.5 pts
4,121 calls · 21.4% 15,144 puts
bias −57.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+16.1 pts
95,483 call OI · 71.2% 38,577 put OI
bias +42.4 × 0.38
Equals
−19.3
69% of the score comes from today’s volume, 31% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.15% · tape −83.3 · corr 0.08
● peak +71 ▼ low −34.1 ◆ −95.4 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $11 $9 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.15% while the tape has faded 83.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (83th pct) · quality 87 · 19,265 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 74
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.22% avg, n=1,509
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led XPEV’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.35, n=50)
against Our record on XPEV is poor 20% hit rate on 564 closed calls · payoff 0.99×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $9.92 highlighted. The $13 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 27,004). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on XPEV Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$9.92 → $9.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$9.55 → $9.92
+3.87% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$9.55 → $9.92
+3.87% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$9.55 → $9.92
+3.87% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 298 of these 564 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report 24 Aug BMO
P/E — Beta 0.964
52w $9.18–$28.24 IV rank —
Ask about XPEV answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +3 to −19 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +61.3 on 7 Oct, then fell to −34.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $9.56 to $9.58. It’s at −19.3 now.−35.5 from volume and +16.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with NIO Why is our XPEV record what it is? What’s the $13 wall?
What our data projects
−0.26 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#453 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $13 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Xpeng Inc · Automobiles
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−19.3 ┆ −34.2 yday evidence
has paid −0.22% · n=1,509
Why it’s −19
−35.5 volume · 21% calls+16.1 OI · 71% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −95.4 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $11 $9 Price −13.15%, tape −83.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 68 (83th pct) · quality 87 · 19,265 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 74
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led XPEV’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.35, n=50)
against Our record on XPEV is poor 20% hit rate on 564 closed calls · payoff 0.99×
What traded today · 62%
−35.5 pts
4,121 calls · 15,144 puts · bias −57.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+16.1 pts
95,483 call OI · 38,577 put OI · bias +42.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.15% · tape −83.3 · corr 0.08
● peak +71 ▼ low −34.1 ◆ −95.4 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $11 $9 Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.15% while the tape has faded 83.3 points. They agree.
20% hit rate · 564 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$9.92 → $9.92
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$9.55 → $9.92
+3.87% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$9.55 → $9.92
+3.87% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$9.55 → $9.92
+3.87% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $13 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about XPEV
Why did the score drop from +3 to −19 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +61.3 on 7 Oct, then fell to −34.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $9.56 to $9.58. It’s at −19.3 now.−35.5 from volume and +16.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 15:44 method · 62/38
Compare with NIO Why is our XPEV record what it is? What’s the $13 wall?